Little bit of difference in opinion. The reason one cannot predict or understand the trend is because there are too many variable. And neither of them remains constant. Take for example. The international market uses USD as an international currency. Therefore, irrespective of USD/INR exchange rate, value of USD affects gold prices. Now if you throw INR into mix, then it becomes complex because USD/INR conversion rate is not fixed. These exchange rate changes (not due to market fluctuations) but by governments actions.

If you take a look from historical perspective, gold prices have remained constant in the context of absolute USD/INR exchange rates of 70s and 80s. But in early nineties (i think between 1993-1995), Indian government de-valued INR (against USD) twice to increase competitiveness of Indian products. If you remove these couple of biases, you will realize that real value of gold remains constant. It is keeping with the inflation in INR terms.

So, it does appear the gold is in indefinite bull run, but in reality it is not. All it is doing is keeping its value as per inflation.

Best Wishes,