This post is based on a question from one of the readers, “I sometimes see research reports of various broker-houses. They show future EPS. They say company has orders lined-up in order book. I am not sure how to get order book details and Future EPS of a company”. I thought this was an interesting question in a sense that how it is interpreted by us as individual investors. Like everything, this also can be interpreted in multiple different ways.
In my view, there is no effective way to measure the impact of future order book on future EPS. Theoretically, it is possible to translate this into future EPS. But I believe it can only be done by company executives. It is company insiders who know the operating cost, raw material cost, possibility of order completion, taxation, and when the revenue is likely to be realized (i.e. received by the company). I cannot understand how brokerage houses or independent analyst can make that estimate. I would like to know if anybody can share the methodology? To me, it only has a marketing value, nothing beyond that. Let me use an example. Continue reading rest of this article…
We as human beings are always objective or goal oriented. We may not know it, but sub-consciously, we are always attempting to do a given task or an activity towards certain goal. Many folks will not agree with me, because there is a perception that ROI is always related to money. To me, it is not. If I spend time with my family, its because the pleasure I get (that’s an ROI). If I did not get that pleasure, overtime it will automatically create a rift. Similarly, if I play any team sports, or go out with friends, it builds our relationship, it builds camaraderie, a sense of togetherness. It is not necessarily for getting any money in return, but to be part of social community. You cannot live alone in this world, right? Keeping with this, the question I am trying to answer today is what is my ROI from this blog? I need to know what I am getting out of this blog. Here also, I will use the framework provided by Avinash. There are multiple parameters to determine ROI from the blog. 
For many of us retail investors, there is a perennial dilemma about two issues. One is about how we should invest and where we should invest. The second one is we always say (or crib) we do not have big enough capital. We never get out of this loop. Which stock to buy or where to invest is decided based on what was read yesterday. Everybody from the top VP of financial firm to any small investors like us, we keep churning out ideas, themes, predictions, estimates, etc. But we do not have conviction in our own ideas. Honestly, I love reading all those ideas as they do make some interesting reading material, but that’s not the way to manage your personal portfolio. .
Do you know how many people investing and/or trading in equity markets truly succeed over long term? Success here means increase in wealth over their investing lifetimes. This group of people includes individual retail folks and professionals. I am sure many of us would have no clue. I do not have any hard core reference to share; however, I can recall reading various percentages that range from 1% to 7%. Without going in specific data points, my observation has been every time this is less than 10% of investing population. More than 90% of the folks will lose money in equity markets over their investing lifetime. Quite startling but this is very true.
Investor’s who use long term buy and hold philosophy use varied different ways to manage risk (such as allocation and diversification), monitor their progress, and performance metric. There is no single metric that can be considered as a holy grail of progress monitoring and/or performance measurement. Depending upon what is the objective and what you want to achieve is what will drive that performance metric. 
The current rally has added 98% to the SENSEX relative to March 2009 low of 8160 points. The rally is going on for last 5 months, the question is, what is fueling this rally? This rebound will make us believe it is start of next Bull Run. Any prudent investor will try to figure out what has happened since March 2009 that justifies this rally. As always, at hindsight everything makes sense.
Holding companies Can Be Good Long Term Investments
I try to keep things simple and focused. Style and panacea does not give you sustainable returns. Your sustainable returns comes from substance behind those stocks. All holding companies are not created equal, and hence all cannot be grouped together as good or bad. As an individual investor, you need to separate holding companies that have substance and fits your portfolio objectives. Continue reading rest of this article…