My Secret Asset for Building Wealth

Year 1997, I was freshly minted engineering graduate, secured well paid job in my first month of final year, and thinking I was smarter than the rest. My final year was what we call “bindass, with damn care attitude”. I was young, naïve, and believed being above few hundred odds in my class is being equal to best. Reflecting back, I couldn’t have been more wrong.

This continued in my early years of investing which can be characterized as impatience, that extra energy to do something, and continuous urge to make an immediate impact or getting results. Like everybody else, I wanted to earn quick bucks and what better way than investing (or trading?) in stock market. You see, I was under the impression that making those few hundreds (or thousands) in small trades and repeating that often will increase my wealth. In other words, it will make me rich. How can that be wrong? After all, I am increasing my cash flow with small profits, isn’t it? Again, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Continue reading rest of this article…

Do Not Enter “The Channels” Otherwise….

moneymaze11Otherwise you will keep hitting resistances, or keeping rotating around the pivots, or you may slip on downtrends, or you may find it hard to climb in upwards, or you may find yourself squeezed into closing triangles. In the end, you just end up waiting for somebody to throw you out of it, only to fall with loud thud.

I buy stocks with an objective to hold it forever. This, for most people, is very difficult to grasp. I started investing about nine years ago (eight of which are being buy-and-hold investor). In these eight years, I can count on my fingers how many times I have sold a given stock. Conversely, I will have to check my records to determine how many times I have purchased a stock.

My friends and acquaintances keep telling me if you never sell a stock how you will make money. You need to buy low and sell high to make money and increase your wealth. I politely ask them only one question, “You have been buying low and selling high for xx number of years. What is your wealth?” Almost every time the voice starts stammering.

To some of them, who are close and good friends, I put a proposition to them. I tell them, since your “first investment” to “as of today”, tell me honestly what has been the real percentage appreciation to your “wealth” (chuckle!). If it is more than my “wealth” appreciation (again more chuckle!), then I will transfer my entire portfolio to you. If not, then vice-a-versa. What is surprising to me is many start mental calculations; hmmm, not including tax, and transaction, ignoring commissions, not considering my subscription fees, blah blah blah…. I end my conversation there itself. Beyond that it’s a waste of time because they do not understand the meaning of total return or wealth. Discussing these two aspects is a topic in itself so I will leave this for future post. Continue reading rest of this article…

India Votes for Strong Man of Action

Once again prediction pundits, pollsters, permutations and combinations have been proven wrong. It happens umpteen number of times and still we continue to give media space to predictologists.

On a personal note, I had a secret wish and desire that Congress should come to power. Not because I have Congressi political lineage, but because of Dr. Manmohan Singh. I don’t want to waste my time expressing my disgust with all political parties and so called political leadership. It’s a waste of time. Now that secret wish has been fulfilled, I think I can say few words… Continue reading rest of this article…

The Bull Running for Red Flag – Waiting to Get Hit?

newsThe current rally has added 48% to the SENSEX relative to February 2009 low of 8160 points. Is this the start of next Bull Run? The market players and traders will make you believe it is in fact the start of next Bull Run. Any rational investor will ask himself one question, what has happened since February 2009 that justifies this rally. Has the global economy turned around? Has the Indian economy turned around? Has the earning of companies turned around? Or the general question can be has it even stabilized to say it is turned around? Some may argue that equity markets are leading indicators and hence things have changed for better.

The real economy across different countries and India has showed continued sign of slowing down. The US economy contracted by approximately 6% last quarter, European economy shows no sign of stopping the slide, and Japan has been in 18 year downward spiral. In addition, the export oriented economy of emerging markets continues to slow down. Russia is in tatters, Brazil is hit by reduce material demand, and Indian companies are looking ways to maintain profitability. China is attempting to spend its way out of this slow down.

In addition, I looked into the latest quarterly earnings of the 30 Indian corporations that are included in the SENSEX. Continue reading rest of this article…

Tipster, You are Fired!

firedI started writing about equity investing on this particular blog from February 2009. However, I have been investing on my own for last eight years or so. Over these years I have learnt a lot about equity markets, macro economics, stock advisors, tipsters, mutual funds managers, etc. I am sure that you also have had your own experiences the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Ever since I started investing, I have always been intrigued by the stock advisors, tipsters, some of the mutual fund managers, portfolio managers, etc. In short, I am talking about the stock tips and stock advising profession. This is the profession which claims to take care of our financial investment at a fee (and off course with no return of any quality service).

  • I fail to understand if they are so sure about their tips and advice, why they are giving to other folks. Why are they letting their secrets out.
  • Why are they not using that advice for their own investments and make more money?
  • In last few years, there has been surge of blog spots (with business orientation) which charge fees to provide daily tips by emails or on cell phones! Funny aspect is many claim they want to help people make money. That is a load of crap!
  • These tipsters want to help people why not provide free tips? Why ask for subscription?
  • Another surprising element is the claim on success rates. Majority of these tipsters purports 80%+ success rate. Yeah that’s right! If your tips have 80%+ success rate, go use your own money to trade? Why are you giving me tips?
  • Just think, if 80%+ success rate are true, why the market is down more than 40%? With that kind of success rate, it is just not possible for market to go down that much. Some will argue with me that profits can be made on short selling. But then how many tipsters advise on short selling? How many times has your own tipster provided you tips on short selling? Continue reading rest of this article…

Compounding Dividend much Better Than Compounding Interest

We all are very much familiar with compound interest. We use savings account with fixed interest. What happens here is that an interest earned (from earlier time period) is added into the principle. Thus the next time period’s interest is somewhat higher. Traditionally, that’s what we have been used to. With a fixed rate of interest our earnings increase year after year.

Let us take an example.

  • We deposit Rs 100 in a savings account with rate of interest of 5%, which gets compounded annually.
  • In the first year, we will earn Rs. 5, in year 2 we get Rs 5.25, in year 3 we get Rs. 5.51, in year 4 we get Rs. 5.79, in year 5 we get Rs 6.08, and it continues.
  • So the interest that we get keeps on increasing year after year.

Now if this is compounding interest, then what is compounding dividends? Before we try to answer this, let me explain what is the good quality dividend stock.

Among many others, the characteristic of good dividend stock is that its dividend increases every year. The rationale here is if earnings increase, the dividend will increase. Even if the percentage remains same, the companies tend to increase dividends with increase in EPS. This is what I call a good dividend stock. Continue reading rest of this article…

The Tale of Two Companies

This is about Satyam Saga. Most of the articles and comments I have read in business media focus on tangibles like revenue, profits, number of customers, etc. So in today’s post I am discussing my view of Satyam Saga. My focus is more on the intangible issues that are hidden and may not visible to common investor.

I would like begin with commending the authorities who made this transition smooth, swift, and without much ado. The use of word authorities here is a proxy for industry association, company law board, ministry officials, and other unknown institutions. I believe if this situation had prolonged and quick decisions were not made, Satyam would have went for a toss, and it would have had a negative impact on Indian outsourcing business. The short term implications would have been far reaching somewhat similar to Lehman Brothers.

One company is Tech Mahindra (TM). The other one is not Satyam. My personal viewpoint about Satyam is that it does not have wide moat in the supply chain. It operates on a business model which uses labor arbitrage as its USP. It is relatively easy and manageable for customers to shift the vendor and still not have any significant impact on their operations. I do not have any intention to offend Satyam folks. However, one has to be pragmatic and take into account how their customer base (i.e. international companies across the developed world) views them as a company. It is viewed as Wal-Mart of software outsourcing industry. The second company I would like to include here is Larsen and Toubro (LnT). Continue reading rest of this article…



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