In my last post, I discussed about my fair valuation for buying and how it would be likely different than selling value. I tried to make a case that I would like to minimize my cost basis and maximize my sell price. Buying is easy because minimizing cost basis is under my control. Nobody can force me to buy high unless I want to do it, right? However, when it comes to selling I do not have any control. Like everybody else, I would like to sell high, but there has to be somebody willing to pay for it? And hence, it is little bit of subjective.
Furthermore, I identified three companies viz. HDFC Bank, Pidilite, and ABB, as stocks that I would consider as fairly valued for selling. OR likely to be tad over valued. I do not consider them to be extremely overvalued. In this post, I do not intend to discuss (or present an argument) what would I consider over priced or extreme overvaluation. No two people will come up with same conclusion. Continue reading rest of this article…
In today’s post, I am continuing my discussion on selling aspects for my long term buy and hold portfolio. To me, buying is always a very easy decision. Easy in a sense that I have few quantitative metrics and qualitative aspect that help me decide whether I should buy a given stock. However, I do not have such fixed metrics that tells me, hey buddy, its time to sell. For me selling is a very subjective process. I touched upon few guidelines that help me make a sell decision.
Discussing and presenting my thoughts on this blogs helps this subjective process. The comments and conversations I have with readers of this blog helps (or influences?) this subjective process. When I say influences, I mean influencing the thought process, and not directly sell a stock because my blog reader says so. Continue reading rest of this article…
It has been very close to a year I have been writing on this blog. Almost on all occasions I have discussed about buying and holding my position. I have said multiple times that I tend not to sell my positions. There have been multiple questions about why not book profits? Why not sell profitable positions and invest in other opportunities? Before I discuss on selling any positions, let me clarify, I do not blindly believe that buy and hold is holy grail for long term investing. I have no misconception about “not selling” any positions. In any system (eco-system, car, machines, or even our body), there are multiple elements and each have a role to play. Similarly, in portfolio management process, selling a position is also very important, and hence it cannot be ignored. In my process description, I have captured this part as ‘exit plan’. Continue reading rest of this article…
What a year 2009 was? At the beginning of the year, the stock market was trying to find how deep the abyss was. Every other participant in the equity market was trying to run away like there was no tomorrow. Fast forward to second half of the year. The story changed and now the stock market is trying to find its peak. It was in true sense a roller coaster ride.
When the equity market goes up like it did in later part of the year, it gives a false sense of confidence in our abilities to pick stocks. Irrespective of what one thinks, any company stock you had touched in second of 2009, it has zoomed. It really did not matter which company stock it was! Lately, I have seen quite a bit of emails trying to point me towards how the stocks that I negated (or did not pick?) have zoomed up and made them money. I do feel happy for everybody who made good money in 2009. I wish you had shared those winners with readers of this blog. We all want to make money here. Right? Continue reading rest of this article…
Graham number is one of the five method I use to estimate the fair value of a given company share that I am willing to pay. I have provided the formula I use and a very brief description. However, over the last few weeks, I have received questions requesting to help explain why this particular formula and is there any rationale on how this is derived. So here it is…..
Graham’s view was the price-to-earnings ratio should not be more than 15. At the same time, price-to-book value should not be more than 1.5. He also mentioned that it would be justifiable to have higher P/B ratio if PE ratio is below 15.
With this thought process, Graham proposed that the product of these two parameters should not be more than 22.5 Continue reading rest of this article…
I am continuing to keep looking for good companies and prepare my watch list. Keeping with this thought process; I looked at few stocks in small cap domain and applied my screening process. I have short listed following five small cap companies that I believe warrant further detailed analysis in the context of my buying objectives.
Aegis Logistics Limited, (AEGISCHEM): The company is focused in supply management of oil and gas logistics. Liquid Terminal Division provides storage and terminal facility for oil and chemical products. Gas Terminal Division provides imports, storage, and distribution of petroleum products like LPG and propane. It services are related to sourcing of product, storage and port operations, arranging road and pipeline movement, shipping, and integrated supply chain management. This is a small cap which has potential for long term buy and hold because it operates in infrastructure sector and good financial management.
Continue reading rest of this article…
My objective of investing in index based ETF is to have a total return that is somewhat similar to the market performance as a whole. It also acts as my benchmark for other long term portfolios. As mentioned in earlier post, if I cannot beat the market by stock selection, I should just close my long term portfolio and invest everything in these index ETFs.
My initial thought process was I would be investing upto 30% of my long term portfolio into index funds. However, after spending some time reading and understanding the various available funds, I have come to realize that there is not much choice available to individual investors. This is not to say, I do not like ETFs. I am still a fan of ETF assuming that they are structured properly and have reasonable expenses. In general, most of the ETFs have low liquidity and high expenses. I do not want my investments to get stuck in the low liquidity funds.
As of now, I will continue to remain under allocated to index ETFs. I do not know what be would the targeted allocation. I will let readers know when I make a decision.
Continue reading rest of this article…
Last week, I discussed my stock screening process and four matrices that I use for short listing the company for further evaluations. One of the traits of any successful investor (or for that matter even a trader) is that they keep a watch list of stocks and monitor its performance. Since the market has run up and we investors believe that stocks are overpriced, it is time to prepare our watch list. In addition, after establishing the watch list, it is also important to determine what would be the price you would be willing to pay to buy it.
Keeping with this thought process; I looked at few stocks and applied my screening process. I have short listed following five companies that I believe warrant further details analysis in the context of my buying objectives. Continue reading rest of this article…
