TIPBlog Portfolio Update: 2009 Year End

UpdateWhat a year 2009 was? At the beginning of the year, the stock market was trying to find how deep the abyss was. Every other participant in the equity market was trying to run away like there was no tomorrow. Fast forward to second half of the year. The story changed and now the stock market is trying to find its peak. It was in true sense a roller coaster ride.


When the equity market goes up like it did in later part of the year, it gives a false sense of confidence in our abilities to pick stocks. Irrespective of what one thinks, any company stock you had touched in second of 2009, it has zoomed. It really did not matter which company stock it was! Lately, I have seen quite a bit of emails trying to point me towards how the stocks that I negated (or did not pick?) have zoomed up and made them money. I do feel happy for everybody who made good money in 2009. I wish you had shared those winners with readers of this blog. We all want to make money here. Right? Continue reading rest of this article…

Estimating Benjamin Graham Number

Graham number is one of the five method I use to estimate the fair value of a given company share that I am willing to pay. I have provided the formula I use and a very brief description. However, over the last few weeks, I have received questions requesting to help explain why this particular formula and is there any rationale on how this is derived. So here it is…..

Graham’s view was the price-to-earnings ratio should not be more than 15. At the same time, price-to-book value should not be more than 1.5. He also mentioned that it would be justifiable to have higher P/B ratio if PE ratio is below 15.

With this thought process, Graham proposed that the product of these two parameters should not be more than 22.5 Continue reading rest of this article…

Short Listing Five Small Caps for Potential Long Term Investments

to-do-listI am continuing to keep looking for good companies and prepare my watch list.  Keeping with this thought process; I looked at few stocks in small cap domain and applied my screening process. I have short listed following five small cap companies that I believe warrant further detailed analysis in the context of my buying objectives.


Aegis Logistics Limited, (AEGISCHEM): The company is focused in supply management of oil and gas logistics. Liquid Terminal Division provides storage and terminal facility for oil and chemical products. Gas Terminal Division provides imports, storage, and distribution of petroleum products like LPG and propane. It services are related to sourcing of product, storage and port operations, arranging road and pipeline movement, shipping, and integrated supply chain management. This is a small cap which has potential for long term buy and hold because it operates in infrastructure sector and good financial management.

Continue reading rest of this article…

Investing Strategy for NIFTYBeES ETF

1212912_growing_graphMy objective of investing in index based ETF is to have a total return that is somewhat similar to the market performance as a whole. It also acts as my benchmark for other long term portfolios. As mentioned in earlier post, if I cannot beat the market by stock selection, I should just close my long term portfolio and invest everything in these index ETFs.


My initial thought process was I would be investing upto 30% of my long term portfolio into index funds. However, after spending some time reading and understanding the various available funds, I have come to realize that there is not much choice available to individual investors. This is not to say, I do not like ETFs. I am still a fan of ETF assuming that they are structured properly and have reasonable expenses. In general, most of the ETFs have low liquidity and high expenses. I do not want my investments to get stuck in the low liquidity funds.


As of now, I will continue to remain under allocated to index ETFs. I do not know what be would the targeted allocation. I will let readers know when I make a decision.

Continue reading rest of this article…

Shortlisting Five Companies for Potential Long Term Investment Analysis

to-do-listLast week, I discussed my stock screening process and four matrices that I use for short listing the company for further evaluations. One of the traits of any successful investor (or for that matter even a trader) is that they keep a watch list of stocks and monitor its performance. Since the market has run up and we investors believe that stocks are overpriced, it is time to prepare our watch list. In addition, after establishing the watch list, it is also important to determine what would be the price you would be willing to pay to buy it.

Keeping with this thought process; I looked at few stocks and applied my screening process. I have short listed following five companies that I believe warrant further details analysis in the context of my buying objectives.  Continue reading rest of this article…

Stock Pre-Screening Process and Metrics

screenI take a considerable amount of time to perform a thorough quantitative and qualitative evaluation for any stock or the company. I believe it is necessary since I am investing for long haul. How does a one month or two month matter when I am attempting to visualize for next 10 years or more. Yes, I agree delaying couple of months will make me miss the window of opportunity or as the stock investing lingo says, missing the multi-bagger.

I screen out many companies before I decide to spend long hours looking into its numbers and future direction. I keep my screening process very simple. The parameters I use for screening are as follows

Operating cash flow: A consistently positive and growing operational cash flow shows the strength of its products and demand in market place. In addition, to a certain extent, it also demonstrates management’s ability to manage the generated cash.

Continue reading rest of this article…

Portfolio Rebalancing

howTwo readers of this blog left couple of intelligent questions in comment section on some of the articles. Both of these questions relate to what I term as rebalancing the portfolio (or profit booking). I wanted to wait until I posted articles on TIPBlog portfolio update and risk analysis. I wanted to discuss these two questions in the context of TIPBlog portfolio. It will help better understand the re-balancing and profit booking processes.

You may have read earlier post that discusses risk analysis. I made a comment that the portfolio has overexposure on few stocks like ONGC, LNT, etc. I also mentioned that I will not be selling any partial shares to bring down allocation. Many use the term profit booking for partial selling.

Continue reading rest of this article…



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