Risk Analysis of TIPBlog Portfolio 3Q2009

riskOne of the most neglected aspect do-it-yourself investors is performing a realistic assessment of their portfolios. I have adopted a very disciplined approach to make sure I follow my quarterly regime of reviewing the progress. First step was to check out the status. Second step is to understand risk, and third step is to make changes (or execute or re-balance if necessary).

In earlier post, I presented the progress update of TIPBlog portfolio. The next step is to analyze risk in the context of my personal risk profile parameters. The objective of this risk analysis is to make sure that TIP portfolio is not exposed to any particular event, or company, or any other aspect that will affect portfolio performance.

My portfolio management process has a risk management process in which I try to:

  1. Maintain pre-determined asset class allocation;
  2. Maintain pre-determined diversification, any sector should not exceed 10%;
  3. Any single stock should not exceed 7% of the portfolio; and
  4. Dividends from a single stock should not exceed 5% of total dividend cash flow.

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TIPBlog Portfolio Update – Third Quarter 2009

UpdateThe 3Q2009 can be summarized as quarter of recovery. In my post SENSEX trends, I looked at quarterly earnings and profitability which showed signs of positive growth. It still remains to be seen whether this growth is sustainable and how long it is going to continue.


It is important for all do-it-yourself investors to make sure they are monitoring their portfolio and keep tracking of progress. Last progress update was for 1H2009 and was discussed in early June 2009. This post summarizes TIPBlog portfolio update and shows progress.

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Measuring Progress – Stock Tracker Excel Sheet

monthly-dividend-portfolio-reviewIn an earlier post, I mentioned that I use XIRR as one of the metrics for measuring the individual stocks performance in my portfolio.  In simple terms, XIRR is the interest rate you would need to make the same money from any interest bearing account (with same investments). While XIRR can be extended at portfolio level, in today’s post, I am only discussing how I use XIRR at individual stock level.


I have pulled out one excel sheet [copy is in my toolbox at TIP-Stock-Tracker] as a representative example for this discussion. The primary notion behind this excel sheet is to keep records and track the performance. It is not intended “to model an automated tracker” or “to perform any automated calculation across the board”. Except XIRR, I have used only few basic math formulas like addition, subtraction, divisions, multiplication, and percentages. In order to understand the formula, I suggest to use formula auditing tool bar (which will show arrows to linked cells) to understand the formulas. This excel is segregated into different regions.

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Measuring Progress – XIRR as Personal Rate of Return

investingInvestor’s who use long term buy and hold philosophy use varied different ways to manage risk (such as allocation and diversification), monitor their progress, and performance metric. There is no single metric that can be considered as a holy grail of progress monitoring and/or performance measurement. Depending upon what is the objective and what you want to achieve is what will drive that performance metric.


In this context, I use few different monitoring and/or performance metric. Earlier, I have talked about yield on cost as one metric to determine cash flow (or dividends) received from my original investments. YOC is a very good metric to measure the growth of your dividend based cash flow over a period of time. However, it has a drawback. It does not take into account the variability of capital invested. The price of the stock does not remain static. It keeps changing over a period of time.

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Oil India Ltd – Should I Subscribe?

question1I am not a fan of IPOs. I do not consider them an attractive opportunity for my investment objectives. In general, companies or organization come to the market with IPOs to generate capital. Their objectives are to generate as much capital as possible with minimum possible dilution. Companies usually choose opportune time frame to offer it to open public so that sufficient premium can be added to fair value (or book value). I do not find fault with the company. They are doing what they are supposed to do. They are attempting to meet their objective to get maximum possible value from the market.

Everybody will have an opinion which is perfectly acceptable. The broking world says “buy it for long term”. Retail market sentiment says buy, buy, and buy. However, I am not buying it. I am giving it a pass. The key question here is what is in there for me as an investor?

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Dividend Investing – Few Tidbits

1133804_sign_success_and_failureIn my last post, I discussed about two important but overlooked aspects about dividend investing. Today, I am discussing few tidbit that I have learnt over the years.

Dividends provide stability in your portfolio: Companies that are generating profitable cash and sharing with shareholders are the ones that do not go bust. Even in down market they give you cash dividends. While your portfolio’s capital values go down, your dividends are positive return to you portfolio. I crave for such a scenario. I position myself to make sure I have enough cash to buy such companies at lower valuations. I see downturn such as early 2009 as an incredible buying opportunity.

Dividends to investors cannot be manipulated: Companies demonstrate profit in their books which fuels the market price. But can you as an investor spend company profits? Profits can be generated from financial engineering, ROC or ROE can be engineering, but cash flow from operations or dividends to shareholders cannot be manipulated. As an investor you need cash to spend, and not company profits. The company you work for gives you cash (and not profit statement). Will you be willing to work for profit statement? Probably not!

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Stock Buying Process

One of the dilemmas long term investors may face is, when buying for first time, how much worth of stocks one should buy in a given company. This question is from long term perspective and not for trading approaches. There are few different schools of thought on this issue. In my view, each of the thoughts, methods, and approach is valid depending upon investor’s objective.


One thought says buy at once in one go, because if one has spent time following it, researching it, then why wait for other occasions. The fact that an investor has questions (or doubt), that means this individual has doubts, or not confident about it. One is questioning own analysis. It could be lack of proper understanding of the stock, or lack of research.

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