TIPBlog Portfolio Update: 2009 Year End

UpdateWhat a year 2009 was? At the beginning of the year, the stock market was trying to find how deep the abyss was. Every other participant in the equity market was trying to run away like there was no tomorrow. Fast forward to second half of the year. The story changed and now the stock market is trying to find its peak. It was in true sense a roller coaster ride.


When the equity market goes up like it did in later part of the year, it gives a false sense of confidence in our abilities to pick stocks. Irrespective of what one thinks, any company stock you had touched in second of 2009, it has zoomed. It really did not matter which company stock it was! Lately, I have seen quite a bit of emails trying to point me towards how the stocks that I negated (or did not pick?) have zoomed up and made them money. I do feel happy for everybody who made good money in 2009. I wish you had shared those winners with readers of this blog. We all want to make money here. Right? Continue reading rest of this article…

Investing Strategy for NIFTYBeES ETF

1212912_growing_graphMy objective of investing in index based ETF is to have a total return that is somewhat similar to the market performance as a whole. It also acts as my benchmark for other long term portfolios. As mentioned in earlier post, if I cannot beat the market by stock selection, I should just close my long term portfolio and invest everything in these index ETFs.


My initial thought process was I would be investing upto 30% of my long term portfolio into index funds. However, after spending some time reading and understanding the various available funds, I have come to realize that there is not much choice available to individual investors. This is not to say, I do not like ETFs. I am still a fan of ETF assuming that they are structured properly and have reasonable expenses. In general, most of the ETFs have low liquidity and high expenses. I do not want my investments to get stuck in the low liquidity funds.


As of now, I will continue to remain under allocated to index ETFs. I do not know what be would the targeted allocation. I will let readers know when I make a decision.

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Stock Pre-Screening Process and Metrics

screenI take a considerable amount of time to perform a thorough quantitative and qualitative evaluation for any stock or the company. I believe it is necessary since I am investing for long haul. How does a one month or two month matter when I am attempting to visualize for next 10 years or more. Yes, I agree delaying couple of months will make me miss the window of opportunity or as the stock investing lingo says, missing the multi-bagger.

I screen out many companies before I decide to spend long hours looking into its numbers and future direction. I keep my screening process very simple. The parameters I use for screening are as follows

Operating cash flow: A consistently positive and growing operational cash flow shows the strength of its products and demand in market place. In addition, to a certain extent, it also demonstrates management’s ability to manage the generated cash.

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Portfolio Rebalancing

howTwo readers of this blog left couple of intelligent questions in comment section on some of the articles. Both of these questions relate to what I term as rebalancing the portfolio (or profit booking). I wanted to wait until I posted articles on TIPBlog portfolio update and risk analysis. I wanted to discuss these two questions in the context of TIPBlog portfolio. It will help better understand the re-balancing and profit booking processes.

You may have read earlier post that discusses risk analysis. I made a comment that the portfolio has overexposure on few stocks like ONGC, LNT, etc. I also mentioned that I will not be selling any partial shares to bring down allocation. Many use the term profit booking for partial selling.

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Risk Analysis of TIPBlog Portfolio 3Q2009

riskOne of the most neglected aspect do-it-yourself investors is performing a realistic assessment of their portfolios. I have adopted a very disciplined approach to make sure I follow my quarterly regime of reviewing the progress. First step was to check out the status. Second step is to understand risk, and third step is to make changes (or execute or re-balance if necessary).

In earlier post, I presented the progress update of TIPBlog portfolio. The next step is to analyze risk in the context of my personal risk profile parameters. The objective of this risk analysis is to make sure that TIP portfolio is not exposed to any particular event, or company, or any other aspect that will affect portfolio performance.

My portfolio management process has a risk management process in which I try to:

  1. Maintain pre-determined asset class allocation;
  2. Maintain pre-determined diversification, any sector should not exceed 10%;
  3. Any single stock should not exceed 7% of the portfolio; and
  4. Dividends from a single stock should not exceed 5% of total dividend cash flow.

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TIPBlog Portfolio Update – Third Quarter 2009

UpdateThe 3Q2009 can be summarized as quarter of recovery. In my post SENSEX trends, I looked at quarterly earnings and profitability which showed signs of positive growth. It still remains to be seen whether this growth is sustainable and how long it is going to continue.


It is important for all do-it-yourself investors to make sure they are monitoring their portfolio and keep tracking of progress. Last progress update was for 1H2009 and was discussed in early June 2009. This post summarizes TIPBlog portfolio update and shows progress.

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Measuring Progress – XIRR as Personal Rate of Return

investingInvestor’s who use long term buy and hold philosophy use varied different ways to manage risk (such as allocation and diversification), monitor their progress, and performance metric. There is no single metric that can be considered as a holy grail of progress monitoring and/or performance measurement. Depending upon what is the objective and what you want to achieve is what will drive that performance metric.


In this context, I use few different monitoring and/or performance metric. Earlier, I have talked about yield on cost as one metric to determine cash flow (or dividends) received from my original investments. YOC is a very good metric to measure the growth of your dividend based cash flow over a period of time. However, it has a drawback. It does not take into account the variability of capital invested. The price of the stock does not remain static. It keeps changing over a period of time.

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Overlooked Aspects of Dividend Investing

investingThere are many different styles, approach, and methods of investing. Many individual investors focus on trading (swing, positional, momentum, speculation, technicals etc.), while many others focus of investing (value, growth, blend, etc), and still many others on special situations (opportunistic, arbitrages, etc). In addition, there are quite a few individual investors that attempt at combination of trading and investing. Similar to glass being half full or half empty, I believe every style has its own pros and cons’ depending upon in what context one is looking at it. Individuals have to figure out what works best for them.


Readers are already accustomed to my approach of dividend investing. I am a long term buy and hold investor and prefer to buy my positions at fair values (fair value calculation methodology). The reason I use fair value is because, I do have enough expertise to determine the tangible book value. While I still use book value based on Graham’s method, it is not the only one on which I base my decision.

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