Adding My Thoughts to the Discussion

herd_groupI received quite a bit of interesting response to my last post about THE HINDU working in foreign partners. When I posted this note and a question for readers to judge, I had decided not respond because it was not related to investing. However, reading through this discussion, I can see many have put lot of thoughts behind their responses and I got to know differing viewpoints. I respect your differing opinions and hence I am compelled to present my thoughts too.

This issue seems to be a hot button (any of my investing post does not generate such a two sided discussion). I showed this post to few my friends and it generated similar debate. In almost all cases, there are folks on both sides of the aisle. Here also a very good debate from both sides.

In my view, I look at this aspect in three different time scales, viz., (1) Prior to 2000; (2) period between 2000 to 2008; and (3) 2008 onwards. I am not saying this is the only way, but we can only reflect on the past and project for future.

Prior to 2000 most of the stuff our IT outsources did was Y2K projects which indeed was labor intensive. This is not to say our IT companies did not have other project, but those did not have any prominence (or perhaps not seen in media – I do not know). What this period did was, brought our IT companies on the global map, even if was perceived as low cost service providers. But that was the need of those times. Our IT companies wanted that global presence and in my view they did an extremely good job. They were being noticed.

The period between 2000 and 2008, is the one where IT companies started the path of growth. This is the period when foreign companies like IBM, Accenture, et. al. realized the outsourcing potential, and got into the high end enterprise side of the business. While our IT companies stuffed with growth, cash, and easy projects very happy to continue plucking the low hanging fruits. Easy projects because it was driven by “cost reduction efforts of US/Europe”. This was the time where they could have started sowing seeds for next growth (rather than getting complacent on pure labor arbitrage). Instead they started down this concept of global delivery model, economic scale, etc. all of which has root in labor arbitrage.

I believe this was right thing to do and perhaps was required to certain extent. We do have large population to support and this was done very successfully. We would have been in much more chaos had IT companies not started outsourcing. While you are getting flushed with crores and easy projects, that’s the time one needs to focus on next phase. You have 1,00,000 folks working in your company and you cannot find 5000 brightest ones to work on the next big thing. You are happy to keep them on bench doing nothing, but won’t create development projects, won’t engage them in some positive manner. Well, I do see some murmurs and on-n-off stories about our IT companies doing something, but again, where is it, bring it out, show it to world! Since it is not out there, all I can say it is probably not worth it! They are happy to proclaim increased seats, increased sq. ft space, addition of folks in payroll, etc. All of this is geared towards labor arbitrage. The perception has been set, which makes it difficult to overcome (although not impossible). Within this period, Google came out with its mobile operating software, Apple with its own iTunes platform, and there are many more such examples….. Our companies with 100000 folks came out with global delivery model.

2008 onwards will show us where we are heading. I tend to agree that all the reasons that we use to explain our inability to climb on higher side were valid in past. From an Indian perspective it was absolutely necessary. But in my view it has now become an excuse (rather than the driver). Unless we stop such excuses, it is not going to help us in future. Past is gone. The perception has been set, lack of products is visible, and lack of vision is obvious. It is possible that I am oblivious and hence cannot see it.

  • To John: I did not understand your Mercedes Benz analogy. Assuming the newspaper is already expert in workflow solution and web publishing, I would tend to think that in this scenario, our IT companies are very well position to provide the low cost back end service or customization. Isn’t it? You do not need media/publishing expertise? All you need is somebody on IT sourcing to execute it?

  • To Prasanth and SEO Mantra: That’s the perception that our IT companies have created for themselves, Isn’t it?

  • To Manshu: I agree.

  • To Income Portfolio: That’s a very good example, and probably very relevant. What does that tell us? Is this an IT issue? Is that we do not focus on quality or we do not have right issues to work at? Perhaps, getting done and billing is more important.

  • To Priyanka: Those are good examples and I have somewhat similar observations. I touched upon this in my message above. I would tend to agree with you. But note chasing low hanging fruit is also important. You need hands, legs, eyes, etc. Meaning everything has a place and importance. Our IT companies forget this aspect.

  • To Amogh: Yeah it was interesting to read variety of viewpoints. I tend to agree with your thoughts and I touched a bit in my message above. However they were valid in past. We should not be looking into past to attempt to rationalize future. As you said, “… in parallel build capabilities for future….” You hit the nail on its head. This is what I believe is missing. OR I cannot see. Until I cannot see, for me perception will not change.

  • To Arungsg: Bharti outsoursing is one more example. Good one. Based on what our IT companies were doing in past, it would have not been possible for them to execute those type of projects. But assuming that our IT companies are evolving, let us see if out IT bigwigs can get and execute such projects in India.

  • To Ravi: If I can understand properly, I think you are trying to separate the domains. You are attempting to look at this as two distinct elements i.e. subject expertise (media/news business) and means of execution (IT tools and services). It looks like your view is that THE HINDU website requirement is more of subject expertise (rather than IT tools and execution). You may very well be correct in this example. It is possible the way you have looked into it. However, if that’s the case, it would be interesting to know who executed it and whose tools they have used?  Assuming that they selected a media business platform, even then I would presume it is IT related, i.e. product? I still continue to think THE HINDU site is faster because of IT architecture/platform that it uses, and not because of media/business expertise. Sure there is subject expertise involved, but they are more of inputs and not execution tools.

  • To Yoginder and Takla: Looks like your thoughts are shaped with the past and that is part of the set a perception I discussed above. It is difficult to address and your message is perfect example of that.


Finally, I am not saying newspaper was wrong in selecting foreign partners. I do not know what their criteria were and what their objectives were. This was not about being right or wrong. However, in my view, examples like these, does add to the general perception of state of our IT companies as a whole.









Facebook User Comments:

11 Responses to “Adding My Thoughts to the Discussion”

  1. Amogh says:

    Hi TIP Guy,
    Again very well written post, thanks.

    I agree on to your thoughts. As to ArunSg’s comment and your response on Bharti, I think now there are quite a few high-end deals in Indian market awarded to top three companies. To name a couple are from Wipro, Unitech deal and DIAL (Delhi Airport Authority Ltd) deal, Govt ESI (Employee State Insurance). I think TCS has few too e.g Passport outsourcing comes to my mind. No doubt that they have missed many and definitely late in this space. Now the big question is whether they can deliver them to the expectation. It would be the real test.

    I am sure other readers will also have comments on the merits of these deals, pl comment :)

    ~Amogh

  2. Rohit says:

    Hi , I have one query where to find the calculator -for past return say If i invest in Nifty/sensex from July 07 on a monthly basis what will be the value now ActualyI want to check whether I am good at my own selection or indexing is better

    • TIP Guy says:

      You will not find index returns, because you cannot invest in index directly. Either you benchmark it against index-based mutual funds, or index based ETF. It is best to use NIFTYBEES or QNIFTY for returns. Because they create units based on your investments.

      All you need to do is:
      (1) Add up your total inputs in excel. i.e. add up your monthly investments and corresponding units.
      (2) This will give you your total cost basis
      (3) Then at any given time, just multiply “number of units” with “value” and get your present value. This will give you total returns.

      FYI — based on last ten years, NIFTY has average annualized return of 15%.

      Best Wishes,

      • Sachin8778 says:

        TIP Guy,

        Will the XIRR (as you explained in some other post) give the same value as the annualized average return? We can assume all investment costs as negative and present value as positive to arrive at XIRR.

        Also not sure how the published SIP returns (annualized) are calculated for MF.

        It will be really useful if you can share your thoughts on these different methods of calculating the rate of returns. Need to find out the most realistic way of looking at the returns, especially something comparable to conventional rate for FD, RD, housing loan, etc.

        I also plan to play with different methods and see if I can find out any useful relation.

        Any inputs are welcome!

        ~Sachin

        • TIP Guy says:

          I have never done a direct comparison. However, looking at basic fundamentals;

          (1) annualized average return in essence averages out. i.e. a given set of investment can have extremely high or low swings but averaging out would give a simplistic view. One good investment will wipe out 5 bad investments. So a bad investment can look good OR vice-a-versa.

          (2) MF returns are CAGR, again averaging out. I am working on a post to explain this. These published CAGR are a big sham and very misleading. Individual investors can have +15% CAGR and still continue to lose capital.

          (3) The difference between FD/RD vs. XIRR is significant. FD/RD are applicable for fixed time and fixed capital. But think of multiple FD/RD with multiple timescales and multiple interest rate. In that scenario, how do you calculate a single return rate? that’s where XIRR comes into play.

          But its a good idea to show some example based comparison. May some be in near future.

          Best Wishes,

  3. Sachin says:

    Hi,

    I know that valueresearchonline.com has SIP and non-SIP calculator, which gives the returns for almost all mutual funds. However I could not find the the indexes there, it does have index funds.

    Cheers,
    Sachin

  4. Siddharth says:

    Interesting posts…the earlier one and this one. In a newspaper the frontpage of website is most important and perhaps that expertise resides somewhere else in the world. That said, the industry is evolving and trying to move up the value chain gradually.

    I think it is the media which hypes up every little thing as a big thing. Something like if India wins a cricket match against Aus…media treats the team like it has managed a GDP growth of 20% for 5 years. OK sorry…bad example.

    • TIP Guy says:

      Siddharth,

      You are right. Media does create a hype, that’s because there is not accountability. Readers/customers don’t ignore such hypes. They do it because we enjoy it.

      Best Wishes,

  5. Raja says:

    Joined the discussion late. But here are my 2 cents.

    It’s ironic that few foreign companies are doing with Indian talent what Indian companies are refusing to do . Few examples:

    1. SAP Labs India started it’s operation in 1996 well before Y2k problem took prominence and developed it’s now flagship product Business By Design from here in B’lore end to end.
    2. HP Labs India and IBM software Labs run their operation successfully from here in B’lore and am sure they do not keep these labs here to take advantage of cost arbitrage alone. They do have lot of patent filings and new product ideas developed from here.
    3. Am also sure high end product companies like EMC square, run their centers from here not for cost advantage alone.
    4. Honeywell TSL works on complex areas such as Aerospace, Automation and Control Solutions, Transportation Systems, and Specialty Materials from here in B’lore.(Again started operation well before Y2k).

    The list of such companies will be pretty long… and the combined strength of people employed by such companies too is not insignificant..

    The point am trying to make here is it’s not that Indian IT talent lacks the technical strength to do good things like new product development on it’s own. It’s rather the lack of entrepreneurial spirit of taking risks and trying out new ideas is what is keeping us behind.

    It doesn’t matter if you have 5k people out of 100k on bench. What matters is the decision to use at least say 500 of them dedicatedly to develop a solution for a problem or a new idea and committing your capital and resource on such idea with complete understanding that such an endeavour might eventually fail to deliver any substantial result inspite of all efforts and good intentions.

    But that’s more or less a problem with so many of our industries isn’t it ??

    We still use Suzuki and Hyundai technology inspite of selling so many cars in the country.
    We still use samsung,lg,sony made electronics.
    We still use nokia made phones inspite of being such a large market for mobile phones.

    Again the list of such industries is long….

    Regards
    Raja

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