Investing Success Comes from Conviction and Executing Your Ideas

1133804_sign_success_and_failureDo you know how many people investing and/or trading in equity markets truly succeed over long term? Success here means increase in wealth over their investing lifetimes. This group of people includes individual retail folks and professionals. I am sure many of us would have no clue.  I do not have any hard core reference to share; however, I can recall reading various percentages that range from 1% to 7%. Without going in specific data points, my observation has been every time this is less than 10% of investing population. More than 90% of the folks will lose money in equity markets over their investing lifetime. Quite startling but this is very true.

We as individuals focus too much on one or two big time success or multi baggers, but ignore the importance of sustainability and consistency. We fall into the “Chalta hai” trap. Long term success is not built on few multi-baggers. Long term success is built on multiple average successes that are sustainable over time. Continue reading rest of this article…

Blue Star Ltd: Stock Analysis for Long Term Investment

logo-bluestarBlue Star Limited (BLUESTARCO) is India’s largest central air conditioning company with an annual turnover of Rs 2574 crores, a network of 29 offices, 5 modern manufacturing facilities, 700 dealers and around 2600 employees. Blue Star primarily focuses on the corporate and commercial markets. These include institutional, industrial and government organizations as well as commercial establishments such as showrooms, restaurants, banks, hospitals, theatres, shopping malls and boutiques. It also has leadership in the field of commercial refrigeration equipment ranging from water coolers to cold storages.

I like that fact that the company is generating approximately Rs 1 Crore of revenue per employee, has low debt, brand value, and leading position in its industry. Blue Star passed my stock screen, and hence it warranted an analysis to understand if meets my objectives.

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Voltamp Transformers: Good Small Cap Stock for Long Term

Voltamp_Transformers_logoVoltamp Transformers Limited (VOLTAMP) is one of the leading player in customized transformers for industrial applications. It has a niche in 132kV market segment and now looking to expand upto 220kV market segment. The key aspect that I like about Voltamp Transformers is its focus on niche market. It has created a space for itself in industrial segments, has zero debt, and focus of controlled growth.

Trend Analysis

The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2001 to 2009.

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Stock Pre-Screening Process and Metrics

screenI take a considerable amount of time to perform a thorough quantitative and qualitative evaluation for any stock or the company. I believe it is necessary since I am investing for long haul. How does a one month or two month matter when I am attempting to visualize for next 10 years or more. Yes, I agree delaying couple of months will make me miss the window of opportunity or as the stock investing lingo says, missing the multi-bagger.

I screen out many companies before I decide to spend long hours looking into its numbers and future direction. I keep my screening process very simple. The parameters I use for screening are as follows

Operating cash flow: A consistently positive and growing operational cash flow shows the strength of its products and demand in market place. In addition, to a certain extent, it also demonstrates management’s ability to manage the generated cash.

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Folly of Bonus Shares

monthly-dividend-portfolio-reviewMedia pundits and business experts are again beating the drums of bonus shares from Reliance. And we all individuals, without giving the thought, start beating the drum of the bonhomie, and are rejoicing that we are getting something for free. Because it is termed as “Bonus”, it is free and we all should be happy for it. Happy that company management is thinking about shareholders and giving them “Bonus Shares”. Coming from school of “value thinking” I believe this is fools paradise. We have lost our ability to think rationally and then make a judgment call. Let us discuss little bit more….

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Suggested Reading – October 3, 2009

Blogosphere is an interesting place where you find various bloggers expressing their viewpoints. I am listing some of the articles that I enjoyed reading.

These are some diverse set of articles from fellow bloggers and business magazines. I hope you enjoy reading all or some of these interesting posts.

Gujarat Gas: Waiting for Right Price to Buy

GG logoGujarat Gas Company Ltd. (GUJARATGAS) is India’s largest private sector company in natural gas transmission and distribution. As the name suggests operations are in state of Gujarat. It distributes natural gas to industrial, commercial, and domestic customers. British Gas Group has a majority of the stake of close to 65% stake in the company. Few key aspects that I like about Gujarat Gas are its business model of gas distribution and practically debt free balance sheet.

Trend Analysis

The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2000 to 2008.

Continue reading rest of this article…

Dividend Investing – Few Tidbits

1133804_sign_success_and_failureIn my last post, I discussed about two important but overlooked aspects about dividend investing. Today, I am discussing few tidbit that I have learnt over the years.

Dividends provide stability in your portfolio: Companies that are generating profitable cash and sharing with shareholders are the ones that do not go bust. Even in down market they give you cash dividends. While your portfolio’s capital values go down, your dividends are positive return to you portfolio. I crave for such a scenario. I position myself to make sure I have enough cash to buy such companies at lower valuations. I see downturn such as early 2009 as an incredible buying opportunity.

Dividends to investors cannot be manipulated: Companies demonstrate profit in their books which fuels the market price. But can you as an investor spend company profits? Profits can be generated from financial engineering, ROC or ROE can be engineering, but cash flow from operations or dividends to shareholders cannot be manipulated. As an investor you need cash to spend, and not company profits. The company you work for gives you cash (and not profit statement). Will you be willing to work for profit statement? Probably not!

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