The 1H2010 can be summarized as return of optimism, in economy, in stock markets, stabilization of global economy, and fears about euro zone. As an individual investor, should I care about macro economics, or should I even worry about what happens to Greece or to euro currency? Ambani brothers patch up and there are stories its good for markets and business! To me, being stalwarts in India Business world, instead of setting an example, it was idiotic for them to even fight and drag each other into courts. These are good academic discussion, but I doubt it is going to help in your own portfolio. I am taking stock of my portfolio.
My last progress update was for year end 2009. This post summarizes TIPBlog portfolio update and measures progress for 1H 2010. Continue reading rest of this article…
Two readers of this blog left couple of intelligent questions in comment section on some of the articles. Both of these questions relate to what I term as rebalancing the portfolio (or profit booking). I wanted to wait until I posted articles on TIPBlog portfolio update and risk analysis. I wanted to discuss these two questions in the context of TIPBlog portfolio. It will help better understand the re-balancing and profit booking processes.
You may have read earlier post that discusses risk analysis. I made a comment that the portfolio has overexposure on few stocks like ONGC, LNT, etc. I also mentioned that I will not be selling any partial shares to bring down allocation. Many use the term profit booking for partial selling.
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In an earlier post, I mentioned that I use XIRR as one of the metrics for measuring the individual stocks performance in my portfolio. In simple terms, XIRR is the interest rate you would need to make the same money from any interest bearing account (with same investments). While XIRR can be extended at portfolio level, in today’s post, I am only discussing how I use XIRR at individual stock level.
I have pulled out one excel sheet [copy is in my toolbox at TIP-Stock-Tracker] as a representative example for this discussion. The primary notion behind this excel sheet is to keep records and track the performance. It is not intended “to model an automated tracker” or “to perform any automated calculation across the board”. Except XIRR, I have used only few basic math formulas like addition, subtraction, divisions, multiplication, and percentages. In order to understand the formula, I suggest to use formula auditing tool bar (which will show arrows to linked cells) to understand the formulas. This excel is segregated into different regions.
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There are many different styles, approach, and methods of investing. Many individual investors focus on trading (swing, positional, momentum, speculation, technicals etc.), while many others focus of investing (value, growth, blend, etc), and still many others on special situations (opportunistic, arbitrages, etc). In addition, there are quite a few individual investors that attempt at combination of trading and investing. Similar to glass being half full or half empty, I believe every style has its own pros and cons’ depending upon in what context one is looking at it. Individuals have to figure out what works best for them.
Readers are already accustomed to my approach of dividend investing. I am a long term buy and hold investor and prefer to buy my positions at fair values (fair value calculation methodology). The reason I use fair value is because, I do have enough expertise to determine the tangible book value. While I still use book value based on Graham’s method, it is not the only one on which I base my decision.
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Yes, the buzz is back and testing markets and testing mettle of individual investors. Three power sector companies, viz. Adani Power, Indianbulls Power, and NHPC, are in fray to get investors money. I had expressed my thoughts about Reliance Power IPO. Let us revisit some of the few tidbits in the context of this latest buzz.
Adani Power was priced in the range of Rs. 90 to Rs. 100 per share. It completed the subscription period and based on the NSE data; it was over subscribed by 20 times. My viewpoint is, its the herd mentality and craze continues. We individual investors never learn our lessons.
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One common question that I continue to receive is about the efficacy of long term investing. The notable factor is almost all of them use two specific examples to explain that long term investing is not a viable solution. These examples are (1) Stock market tanking in 2008; and (2) Satyam going kaput.
To begin with, it tells me that many do not understand what is investing. Folks who ask these questions do not understand long term investing. I keep wondering, how to best explain what is long term investing.
In general, first half of 2009 can be characterized as roller coaster ride. While we saw multi year lows, at the same time, we also saw historical one day rally. In my post bull running for red flag, I showed that majority of SENSEX companies are showing reduced earnings. And surprisingly, it is being rewarding by increase value. I continue to believe, there is no way any individual can predict the markets. So who bother wasting time on it?
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You can’t spend profits! Can you?
A statement that you can’t spend profits, might surprise you! Individuals might think that this is a very odd statement and perhaps incorrect. It is a correct statement and should be made as an investing proverb to be used by any type of investor. Let me present my case.
Companies make profit by selling or exchange of their products or services. At a very basic fundamental level, this can be done by making those products or services at lower associated cost (or expenses). In the end, what we all want is to somehow convert those profits into cash so that we can spend it. Some might argue that this is just semantics of words. I say, it is not! If that were the case than how can we explain the fact that many times companies report profits that are more than cash flow from operations? Take a pause and think for a moment. How can we have more profit when we are not getting that much of cash transactions? In one of my earlier post Cash Flow is Important Financial Statement, I discussed how cash flow is what ultimately drives the value of any given business. Continue reading rest of this article…