Chasing and Paying for Future Expectations – Fallacy or Conundrum ?

NIFTY and SENSEX have been scaling heights in recent months – that is true only if you look back last 6 months, or  12 months, or 24 months.  But when you look back 2 years or 3 years, one would say, it is not a correct statement. In this context, the correct statement would be to say NIFTY and SENSEX are at same levels. You see how putting context or changing data set changes observations and conclusions. The point being, as an investor you have to learn how to “make an objective decision”. You have to learn how to “avoid making subjective decisions”. The current state of equity markets and economy provides a very good example of how to we make subjective decisions.


In last month or so, I have had an opportunity to interact with few folks on email. Many of these folks very interested to know whether it is time to sell any stocks in my portfolio e.g. ONGC, Reliance Capital, HDFC Bank, ABB, etc. Many of them wanted to check if it is time to book some profits. And few folks made a comment that Reliance Capital, NTPC, and ABCIL are not fundamentally strong for buy and hold portfolio. Continue reading rest of this article…

TIPBlog Portfolio Update: 1H 2010

UpdateThe 1H2010 can be summarized as return of optimism, in economy, in stock markets, stabilization of global economy, and fears about euro zone. As an individual investor, should I care about macro economics, or should I even worry about what happens to Greece or to euro currency? Ambani brothers patch up and there are stories its good for markets and business! To me, being stalwarts in India Business world, instead of setting an example, it was idiotic for them to even fight and drag each other into courts. These are good academic discussion, but I doubt it is going to help in your own portfolio. I am taking stock of my portfolio.


My last progress update was for year end 2009. This post summarizes TIPBlog portfolio update and measures progress for 1H 2010. Continue reading rest of this article…

Portfolio Rebalancing

howTwo readers of this blog left couple of intelligent questions in comment section on some of the articles. Both of these questions relate to what I term as rebalancing the portfolio (or profit booking). I wanted to wait until I posted articles on TIPBlog portfolio update and risk analysis. I wanted to discuss these two questions in the context of TIPBlog portfolio. It will help better understand the re-balancing and profit booking processes.

You may have read earlier post that discusses risk analysis. I made a comment that the portfolio has overexposure on few stocks like ONGC, LNT, etc. I also mentioned that I will not be selling any partial shares to bring down allocation. Many use the term profit booking for partial selling.

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Measuring Progress – Stock Tracker Excel Sheet

monthly-dividend-portfolio-reviewIn an earlier post, I mentioned that I use XIRR as one of the metrics for measuring the individual stocks performance in my portfolio.  In simple terms, XIRR is the interest rate you would need to make the same money from any interest bearing account (with same investments). While XIRR can be extended at portfolio level, in today’s post, I am only discussing how I use XIRR at individual stock level.


I have pulled out one excel sheet [copy is in my toolbox at TIP-Stock-Tracker] as a representative example for this discussion. The primary notion behind this excel sheet is to keep records and track the performance. It is not intended “to model an automated tracker” or “to perform any automated calculation across the board”. Except XIRR, I have used only few basic math formulas like addition, subtraction, divisions, multiplication, and percentages. In order to understand the formula, I suggest to use formula auditing tool bar (which will show arrows to linked cells) to understand the formulas. This excel is segregated into different regions.

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Overlooked Aspects of Dividend Investing

investingThere are many different styles, approach, and methods of investing. Many individual investors focus on trading (swing, positional, momentum, speculation, technicals etc.), while many others focus of investing (value, growth, blend, etc), and still many others on special situations (opportunistic, arbitrages, etc). In addition, there are quite a few individual investors that attempt at combination of trading and investing. Similar to glass being half full or half empty, I believe every style has its own pros and cons’ depending upon in what context one is looking at it. Individuals have to figure out what works best for them.


Readers are already accustomed to my approach of dividend investing. I am a long term buy and hold investor and prefer to buy my positions at fair values (fair value calculation methodology). The reason I use fair value is because, I do have enough expertise to determine the tangible book value. While I still use book value based on Graham’s method, it is not the only one on which I base my decision.

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Five Good Stocks for Long Term Investor

I am a believer that our environment, surroundings, and our education shape our thought process. Knowingly or unknowingly our thinking will demonstrate what we have been through in past. It is applicable to every living being including us humans and present Indian population. Still there are very few who think and visualize beyond their surroundings. And it is these few who evolve and succeed over long term.

Our present 20s and 30s generation, of which I am part of, is very vibrant, inquisitive, and very progressive and has a desire to succeed in one way or the other. As they say, life is very fast in today’s India! The IT generation is very impatient which reflects the IT domain’s continuous changes in short one year. What is new today is considered to be obsolete in 2 years. Unfortunately, we fail to understand it is not same in investing.  Here are few interesting tidbits:

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Power Companies leading the Renewed IPO Buzz

ist1_916688-male-gossips-2Yes, the buzz is back and testing markets and testing mettle of individual investors. Three power sector companies, viz. Adani Power, Indianbulls Power, and NHPC, are in fray to get investors money. I had expressed my thoughts about Reliance Power IPO. Let us revisit some of the few tidbits in the context of this latest buzz.

Adani Power was priced in the range of Rs. 90 to Rs. 100 per share. It completed the subscription period and based on the NSE data; it was over subscribed by 20 times. My viewpoint is, its the herd mentality and craze continues. We individual investors never learn our lessons.

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