One of the most neglected aspect do-it-yourself investors is performing a realistic assessment of their portfolios. I have adopted a very disciplined approach to make sure I follow my quarterly regime of reviewing the progress. First step was to check out the status. Second step is to understand risk, and third step is to make changes (or execute or re-balance if necessary).
In earlier post, I presented the progress update of TIPBlog portfolio. The next step is to analyze risk in the context of my personal risk profile parameters. The objective of this risk analysis is to make sure that TIP portfolio is not exposed to any particular event, or company, or any other aspect that will affect portfolio performance.
My portfolio management process has a risk management process in which I try to:
- Maintain pre-determined asset class allocation;
- Maintain pre-determined diversification, any sector should not exceed 10%;
- Any single stock should not exceed 7% of the portfolio; and
- Dividends from a single stock should not exceed 5% of total dividend cash flow.
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Gujarat Gas Company Ltd. (GUJARATGAS) is India’s largest private sector company in natural gas transmission and distribution. As the name suggests operations are in state of Gujarat. It distributes natural gas to industrial, commercial, and domestic customers. British Gas Group has a majority of the stake of close to 65% stake in the company. Few key aspects that I like about Gujarat Gas are its business model of gas distribution and practically debt free balance sheet.
Trend Analysis
The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2000 to 2008.
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There are many different styles, approach, and methods of investing. Many individual investors focus on trading (swing, positional, momentum, speculation, technicals etc.), while many others focus of investing (value, growth, blend, etc), and still many others on special situations (opportunistic, arbitrages, etc). In addition, there are quite a few individual investors that attempt at combination of trading and investing. Similar to glass being half full or half empty, I believe every style has its own pros and cons’ depending upon in what context one is looking at it. Individuals have to figure out what works best for them.
Readers are already accustomed to my approach of dividend investing. I am a long term buy and hold investor and prefer to buy my positions at fair values (fair value calculation methodology). The reason I use fair value is because, I do have enough expertise to determine the tangible book value. While I still use book value based on Graham’s method, it is not the only one on which I base my decision.
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Hero Honda Motors Limited (HEROHONDA) is India’s largest 2 wheeler motorcycle manufacturer in India. It has two manufacturing facilities at Dharuhera and Gurgaon in Haryana, which produce over 3 million bikes per year. It is has largest market share in excess of 50% in Indian two wheeler segment.
One notable aspect that I personally like about HEROHONDA is its positioning in the market segment. It satisfies the vehicular needs of large number of middle class in India. It is very well positioned in a sense that recessionary trend, slow down, or increase in oil price improves its sales and revenue. This is evident by relatively stable stock during this current market turbulence since Year 2009.
Trend Analysis
The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2001 to 2008.
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Tata Investment Corporation Limited (TATAINVEST) operates as an non-banking financial company. Its primary activity is to invest in long-term equity shares and other securities of companies in a range of industries. It is also engaged in management and distribution of mutual funds. TATAINVEST operates as a subsidiary of Tata Sons Limited.
One notable aspect that I personally like about TATAINVEST is its business model. This revenue and profitability comes from dividend income and profits from selling investments. Majority of its long term investments are in blue chip companies that have good cash flow and profitable businesses.
Trend Analysis
The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2001 to 2008.
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Pidilite Industries Ltd. Limited (Pidilite) is a consumer and specialties chemicals company. Its product range includes adhesives and sealants, construction and paint chemicals, automotive chemicals, art materials, industrial adhesives, industrial and textile resins, and organic pigments. It has several market leading brands that include Fevicol, cyclo, Sargent Art, hobby ideas, Dr. Fixit, ROFF, and m-seal. Two thirds of company’s revenue comes from India’s internal market. Historically, the company has developed most of its product thought a very strong in-house development program. However, in recent years, it has embarked expanding this reach by overseas acquisition and setting up overseas manufacturing units.
Trend Analysis
The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years 2000 to 2008.
- Revenue: Increasing trend with average growth of 18% (SDev. 7%).
- Earnings per share: Increasing trend with average growth of 20% (SDev. 18%). This shows very high year-over-year variability.
- Net cash flow from operations: Overall, the net cash flow from operations has an increasing trend. For most part, the net cash flow has been very close to the reported net profit. However, since 2007, it is less than reported net profits. Not a good observation.
- Profit/Loss from operations: Looking at standalone profits only, the corporation is showing consistently increasing profits from its operations. Good observation.
- Reported net profit: Increasing trend. Good observation
- Gross margins: A slow downward trend on gross margins. 2008 gross margins lower than historical average of 16.5% (narrow stdev. of 1.36%). Still not an alarmingly low level. Neutral observation.
- Operating margins: Operating margins in-line with historical average. Neutral observation.
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Investing Success Comes from Conviction and Executing Your Ideas
We as individuals focus too much on one or two big time success or multi baggers, but ignore the importance of sustainability and consistency. We fall into the “Chalta hai” trap. Long term success is not built on few multi-baggers. Long term success is built on multiple average successes that are sustainable over time. Continue reading rest of this article…